Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. The shutdown of 2G networks has caused complications, leading to calls for better planning when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly made the decision to deactivate 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many users still relying on them or legacy applications. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older generations of networks operational, operators were able to reduce support and maintenance expenses by phasing them out. This also allowed for the valuable spectrum to be freed up for use by 4G and eventually 5G networks.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced due to demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G in certain markets is not always tied to economic factors or the revenue generated from average revenue per user (ARPU).
In general, 2G and 3G networks are not very profitable for operators, and often times they face a dilemma between the expenses of keeping these older technologies running and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not usually required by contracts to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to disconnect a large number of customers or business clients.
This reason has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generations of wireless technology to coexist more economically with 4G and 5G. This is achieved by sharing base stations or spectrum, often with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details on these solutions will be provided later in this report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older generations once the latest RAN technology has been fully implemented.
In some markets, the gradual process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the standard 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain telecommunication companies are suggesting a shift in approach for the development of 6G technology. They believe that a more organic process should be adopted, allowing for obsolescence to happen gradually and naturally, in contrast to the abrupt changes seen during the transition from 2G to newer technologies.
In order to predict the dates when older technologies will be phased out and newer ones will be introduced, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G beginning to emerge. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment, which will occur at different times starting from 2019.
This forecast is the most recent one available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst company known for its expertise in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now, the energy sector. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative white papers on technology.
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