Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations from 2024 to 2040. Network sunsetting has become a major concern in the mobile industry due to the ongoing use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The difficulties experienced during 2G shutdowns have highlighted the need to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks if they did not have many older applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations, telecom operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out support and maintenance for these networks. This also allowed them to free up valuable spectrum for 4G and eventually 5G technologies.

While the early versions of 1G quickly disappeared as demand for digital voice and SMS messaging grew, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique situations that determine the longevity of certain technologies, which is not always linked to economic factors or revenue generation.

Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked with limited profits, causing operators to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running or to shut them down. While there may not be contractual obligations to maintain these services, operators are hesitant to lose a significant portion of their customer base by discontinuing them.

This factor has resulted in the creation of packages that make it more affordable for older G networks to coexist with 4G and 5G, by sharing base stations or spectrum. Open RAN is also being used in some cases to facilitate this coexistence. More information on these packages will be discussed later in this report.

Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G in the 2030s. However, the sunset time for 4G is expected to be less extensive due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.

Certain operators are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G, aiming for a smoother transition without the sudden disruptions seen with the phasing out of 2G technology. They advocate for a more gradual and organic evolution to prevent such upheavals.

In order to predict the sunset dates for different generations of technology and prepare for the termination of 4G networks, a forecast chart has been created covering a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G networks starting to emerge around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the introduction of 5G networks at different points starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently has:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst company with a 21-year history of expertise in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now, the energy sector. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.

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