Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Concerns have been raised about difficulties associated with shutting down 2G networks, prompting calls to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue the use of 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations of networks running, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for 4G and eventually 5G networks.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly phased out in favor of digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over forty years since its inception in Finland in 1991. This shows the diverse situations of different markets, which are not always linked to economic status or average revenue per user.
2G and 3G networks are typically not very profitable for operators, leading them to face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not always required by contracts to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to abruptly end them and risk losing a significant number of customers.
As a result of this factor, there have been advancements in packages that allow older generations of technology to work alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these advancements are discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it is likely that a similar pattern will be seen for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation will be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the most up-to-date RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services with newer generations.
Certain industry professionals are advocating for a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G technology, towards a more gradual and natural evolution that minimizes the disruptions typically seen with the phasing out of older technologies like 2G.
In order to predict the dates when different generations of technology will become obsolete and to prepare for the phasing out of 4G, our forecast chart covers a span of 30 years from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services by 2011, with 4G starting to become more prevalent around that time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the red segment, which will occur at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most up-to-date prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become a respected authority in the fields of 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and is now focusing on the energy industry after 21 years in operation. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates predictions for the market and informative technology reports.
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