Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Network sunsetting is a major concern in the mobile industry, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G networks. The challenges of shutting down 2G networks have highlighted the need to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to deactivate their 2G and 3G networks if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to save money by discontinuing support and maintenance for these networks, and also free up spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced with digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in certain markets for over forty years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G varies greatly between different markets, and is not always dependent on economic factors or revenue generated.

Typically, 2G and 3G technologies are not very profitable for operators, leading them to struggle with the decision to either keep them running or shut them down. While operators are not required to maintain these older services, they are hesitant to lose a significant portion of their customer base.

This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to work alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This is achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, often utilizing Open RAN technology. Further details on these solutions will be discussed later in the report.

Our research indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar pattern may occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced due to efforts to phase out older generations of technology once complete coverage has been achieved with the latest Radio Access Network (RAN) technology.

In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain operators are advocating for a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G technology, preferring a more gradual and natural progression that allows for obsolescence to happen without the disruptions seen during the phase-out of 2G networks.

In order to predict when different generations of mobile technology will become obsolete and to prepare for the shutdown of 4G networks, a forecast chart has been created that covers a span of 30 years from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most mobile operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The introduction of 5G is expected to happen at different times starting from 2019, as indicated by the start of the red segment on the chart.

This is the most recent prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst company that has become known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now also focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.

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