Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the continued use of 3G and 2G for older applications. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have raised concerns about avoiding similar complications when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in about ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly made the decision to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without external pressure to keep older technologies, telecom operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out these networks, freeing up spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While 1G technologies were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not always determined by economic factors or average revenue per user (ARPU) in different markets.
In general, 2G and 3G networks do not generate high revenues, leading many operators to face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators may not have contractual obligations to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to work alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way by sharing base stations or spectrum. Open RAN technology is sometimes used to facilitate this coexistence. More details on these solutions will be provided in later sections of this report.
The research we conducted indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to continue for 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the regular 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G, preferring a more organic process where outdated technology is phased out gradually and smoothly, avoiding the disruptions seen with the transition from 2G.
In order to account for the different sunset dates and the upcoming closures of 4G networks, our forecast chart extends over a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to emerge around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the red segment, which will occur at different times starting from 2019.
This represents the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which has been updated to include:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-respected analyst company with a 21-year history of expertise in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded their focus to include the energy marketplace. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.
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