Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations from 2024 to 2040. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly due to the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Issues surrounding the shutdown of 2G networks have raised concerns about avoiding similar complications when it comes time to phase out 4G in the future. This process is expected to occur in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many legacy users or applications relying on them. Without external pressure to keep older technologies, operators could save money by discontinuing support for 2G and 3G, allowing them to focus on improving 4G and 5G networks and freeing up spectrum for these newer technologies.
While the first generation of mobile networks quickly disappeared due to the demand for digital voice and SMS, the second generation has persisted in some markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G networks is influenced by a variety of factors in different markets, not just economic conditions or revenue generated.
In general, 2G and 3G networks are not very profitable for operators, leading them to face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not usually obligated to keep these services running, they are hesitant to abandon a significant number of customers.
As a result of this factor, there have been new packages created to allow older generation networks to coexist with 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This is achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN technology. More details about these packages will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and this trend may also occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition is expected to be less significant due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the most up-to-date RAN technology.
In some markets, the gradual phasing out of 2G and 3G networks has caused dissatisfaction among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunication companies are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G technology, aiming for a more gradual and natural process of becoming outdated, as opposed to the sudden disruptions seen with the phase-out of 2G networks.
In order to account for the different sunset dates and the upcoming closure of 4G networks, our forecast chart extends over a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart represents the launch of 5G at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst company with a 21-year track record of expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. Recently, they have also started focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative technology reports.
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