Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunsetting

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G. The shutdown of 2G has been problematic, prompting calls to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, particularly if they did not have many older applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, telecommunications companies were able to save money on support and maintenance by discontinuing them. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the early versions of first generation (1G) mobile networks were quickly replaced due to the demand for digital voice calling and SMS texting, second generation (2G) networks have remained in use in some markets for over 40 years since they were first introduced in Finland in 1991. This prolonged existence of 2G networks is due to the diverse conditions and circumstances of different markets, which are not always determined by economic status or average revenue per user (ARPU).

In reality, 2G and 3G networks are often linked to limited profits, leading many telecommunications companies to face a dilemma. They must decide whether to keep investing in these older technologies or risk negative consequences by shutting them down. While operators may not have legal obligations to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

This trend has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation technologies to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable manner. This is achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, often utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these solutions will be discussed later in the report.

Our research indicates that there is a large variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and this trend is expected to continue for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the extent of this variation is likely to be reduced because steps are being taken to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the latest RAN technology.

In some markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technologies has caused operators to become disillusioned with the traditional 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G technology, aiming for a more seamless and gradual transition to newer technologies to avoid the disruptions experienced during the phase-out of 2G networks.

In order to predict the dates when older technology will be phased out and newer technology will take over, a chart has been created that covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most mobile operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The chart shows when 5G technology was expected to be launched, starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst firm with a 21-year history of expertise in areas such as 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now focusing on the energy sector. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informational documents on technology.

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