Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations from 2024 to 2040. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. The shutdown of 2G networks has been complicated, leading to concerns about avoiding similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue the use of 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep older generations of networks running, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for newer technologies like 4G and eventually 5G.
While the early versions of 1G technology were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since it was first introduced in Finland in 1991. The reasons for this vary among different markets, and are not always linked to economic status or revenue generated.
Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are usually linked to lower profits, leading many telecommunications companies to struggle with the dilemma of either maintaining these outdated technologies at a high cost or facing potential backlash from shutting them down. While there may be no contractual obligation to keep these services running, operators are hesitant to alienate a significant portion of their customer base by discontinuing them.
This factor has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This can be achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, and in some cases, with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details on these packages are provided later in the report.
Our research indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to also be seen in 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation is projected to be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technologies has caused operators to become disillusioned with the traditional 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain operators are suggesting a shift in approach for the development of 6G technology, towards a more gradual and natural process of becoming outdated. This is proposed to avoid the disruptions that typically come with the end of 2G networks.
In order to account for the varying sunset dates and the upcoming closures of 4G networks, our forecast chart extends over a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services, with 4G beginning to emerge around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment on the chart, with launches expected at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:
Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst firm that has become well-known for its expertise in 5G, various wireless technologies, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and recently, the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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