Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunsetting
The plan for phasing out older cellular technology generations, known as the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040, is crucial for the mobile industry. The reliance on 3G and 2G for legacy applications and processes has made network sunsetting a pressing issue. Shutdowns of 2G networks have posed challenges, prompting the industry to learn from these experiences to avoid similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in about ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many legacy applications or users relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to save costs by discontinuing support and maintenance for these networks. This also allowed for the allocation of valuable spectrum for the advancement of 4G and eventually 5G technology.
While the first generation of mobile networks quickly faded out in favor of digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has continued to be used in certain markets for over forty years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G networks is influenced by a variety of factors in different markets, not solely by economic conditions or average revenue per user.
Typically, 2G and 3G networks do not generate high profits, causing operators to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down. While operators may not be obligated by contracts to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This factor has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to share base stations or spectrum more efficiently with 4G and 5G, often utilizing Open RAN technology. Further details on these packages will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar trend may occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition may be less significant due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G technology. They propose a more seamless and gradual transition to newer technology, in contrast to the abrupt changes seen with the sunset of 2G networks.
In order to account for the wide range of sunset dates and plan for the first shutdowns of 4G networks, our sunset forecast chart covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services by 2011, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the introduction of 5G at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
For the past 21 years, Rethink Technology Research has become a respected authority in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now energy markets. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative documents on technology.
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