Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Network sunsetting is a major concern in the mobile industry, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G networks. The challenges of shutting down 2G have highlighted the importance of planning ahead to avoid similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, several countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have a lot of legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technology, mobile operators were able to save money by discontinuing support and maintenance for these networks, while also freeing up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the early iterations of 1G technology quickly faded away with the demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G has managed to stay in use in certain markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This longevity highlights the diverse situations of different markets, which are not always influenced by economic factors or revenue generated.

In many cases, 2G and 3G networks are not very profitable for telecommunications companies, leading them to struggle with the decision to either keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down. While operators are not always obligated to provide these services, they are hesitant to disconnect a large number of customers.

This factor has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to coexist more affordably with 4G and 5G by sharing base stations or spectrum, often utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these packages are discussed later in the report.

Our research indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to also occur for 4G in the 2030s, but to a lesser degree. This is because steps are being taken to minimize support for older generations once full coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to a new generation.

Several telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach in the development of 6G technology. They propose a more natural and gradual process of obsolescence, in contrast to the sudden and disruptive transitions seen with the phasing out of 2G technology.

In order to predict the sunset dates for various generations of mobile networks and prepare for the phase out of 4G, a forecast chart has been created covering a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G beginning to emerge around the same time. The introduction of 5G is marked by the start of the bright red segment on the chart, with deployments expected to occur at different times starting from 2019.

This represents the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which presently consists of:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst company that has become a respected authority in the areas of 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and is now expanding into the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.

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