Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting due to the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Shutdowns of 2G networks have caused complications, leading to concerns about avoiding similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in about ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G services, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out 2G and 3G, freeing up spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly phased out due to demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G has continued to be used in certain markets for over forty years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not always dependent on the economic status or average revenue per user (ARPU) of a market.
In reality, 2G and 3G networks usually bring in less revenue, causing operators to struggle with whether to keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down. While operators may not be legally required to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This reason has resulted in the creation of programs that allow older G technologies to coexist more economically with 4G and 5G by sharing base stations or spectrum, often with the assistance of Open RAN. More details on these programs will be discussed later in this report.
The research we conducted reveals a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, a trend that is expected to continue with 4G in the 2030s. However, this transition will be less pronounced as efforts are made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Several operators are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G, advocating for a more gradual and natural process of obsolescence to avoid the disruptions seen with the phasing out of 2G technology.
In order to account for the different sunset dates and the upcoming closure of 4G networks, our sunset forecast chart covers a period of 30 years from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G networks beginning to emerge around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the bright red segment, which is expected to occur at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become well-known for its expertise in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, streaming media, Internet of Things, and energy markets throughout its 21-year existence. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates forecasts and white papers on market trends and technology.
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