Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting due to the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy purposes. There have been issues with shutting down 2G networks, leading to concerns about avoiding similar mistakes when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older technologies, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for 4G and eventually 5G networks.

While the early versions of 1G technology were quickly phased out to make way for digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G has remained in use in certain markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique circumstances that determine the longevity of older technologies, which are not always tied to economic factors or revenue generated.

In reality, older technologies like 2G and 3G often bring in less money for operators. This puts operators in a difficult position, as they have to decide between the expenses of keeping these outdated technologies running and the potential backlash from shutting them down. While operators may not be legally obligated to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers if they do so.

This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation mobile networks to operate alongside 4G and 5G networks in a more affordable manner. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, with the assistance of Open RAN technology in certain instances. Further details on these solutions will be discussed later in this report.

Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar pattern may occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition may be less drastic due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the most current RAN technology.

In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the regular 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.

Certain operators are advocating for a shift in approach with the development of 6G, moving towards a more natural and gradual process of obsolescence. This would avoid the disruptions typically seen with the phasing out of 2G technology.

In order to account for the different dates when sunset will occur and when 4G will be phased out, we have created a forecast chart that covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G also being rolled out around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the bright red segment, which will occur at different times starting from 2019.

This is the most up-to-date prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become well-known as an expert in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now also focuses on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.

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