Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 focuses on strategies to phase out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the reliance on 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The complications from shutting down 2G have prompted calls to avoid similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries promptly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G services, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without external pressure to keep older technologies, telecom operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out these generations, and also free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While earlier generations of mobile networks were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows the diverse situations in different markets, which are not always tied to economic status or revenue generated.
Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are usually linked with limited profits, leading many service providers to face the dilemma of either maintaining outdated technologies at a cost or dealing with the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not always required by contracts to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of consumers or business clients.
This has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This can be achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details on these solutions will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a variety of sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the sunset for 4G is expected to be less widespread compared to previous generations, as efforts are being made to transition away from older technologies once full coverage with the latest RAN technology is achieved.
In certain markets, the gradual process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has led to operators feeling dissatisfied with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain telecommunication companies are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G technology, advocating for a more gradual and natural progression that avoids the sudden upheaval seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to account for the wide range of sunset dates and the upcoming closures of 4G networks, our forecast chart extends over a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the rollout of 5G at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst company with a 21-year history of expertise in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now energy markets. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative white papers on technology.
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