Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many systems still rely on 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The difficulties experienced during 2G shutdowns have prompted calls for better planning to avoid similar issues when 4G sunsets in about ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older generations of networks, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed them to free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and eventually 5G.

While the early versions of 1G technology quickly faded away due to demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G technology has continued to be used in certain markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This extended use demonstrates the diverse conditions in different markets, which are not always determined by economic factors or revenue generated.

Typically, 2G and 3G networks are not very profitable for operators, leading them to face a dilemma between the expense of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not required by contract to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

This situation has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generations of cellular technology to coexist more economically with 4G and 5G by sharing base stations or spectrum. Open RAN technology is sometimes used to facilitate this sharing. More details on these packages will be discussed later in the report.

The research we conducted reveals a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.

In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services with each new generation.

Certain telecommunications companies believe that with the introduction of 6G, there should be a shift towards a more natural and gradual evolution of technology, in order to avoid the disruptions that occurred during the transition from 2G to newer generations.

In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out and to account for the beginning of the end for 4G, a forecast chart has been created covering a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent around the same time. The introduction of 5G is indicated by the start of the red segment on the chart, which will occur at different times starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm with a 21-year history of expertise in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and energy markets. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.

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