Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have raised concerns about avoiding similar mistakes when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks, particularly if there weren't many legacy applications or users relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to reduce costs by discontinuing support for these networks, freeing up spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the early generations of mobile technology quickly disappeared in favor of digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G has continued to be used in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not always determined by economic factors or the revenue generated by average revenue per user (ARPU) in those markets.

Certainly, older mobile network technologies like 2G and 3G tend to bring in less revenue for operators. As a result, many operators are facing a difficult decision regarding whether to keep supporting these outdated technologies or to shut them down. While there may not be any contractual obligations forcing operators to maintain these services, they are hesitant to disconnect a large number of consumers and business customers.

This circumstance has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generations of cellular technology to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable manner by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these packages are discussed later in this report.

Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G, which is expected to also be present for 4G in the 2030s. However, the impact will be lessened as efforts are made to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain operators are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G, leaning towards a more organic process of evolution where technology becomes obsolete in a more gradual and seamless manner, avoiding the disruptions typically seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.

In order to predict when older networks will be phased out and new technologies introduced, a forecast chart has been created covering a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most mobile operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to emerge. The chart also shows the introduction of 5G starting from 2019 onwards.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-respected analyst firm with a 21-year history of expertise in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now energy markets. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology white papers.

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