Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 focuses on strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting due to the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. There are concerns about the complications that may arise from shutting down 2G networks and the need to avoid similar issues when the time comes to phase out 4G in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulations to keep older networks running, operators were able to reduce costs by phasing them out, freeing up valuable spectrum for 4G and eventually 5G.
While the first generation of mobile networks quickly disappeared due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This is due to the unique circumstances of each market, which are not always determined by economic status or average revenue per user.
In reality, 2G and 3G networks are usually not very profitable, causing some operators to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down. While operators are not legally obligated to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to abandon a large number of consumers or business clients.
As a result of this factor, new packages have been created to allow older generations of G technology to coexist more affordably alongside 4G and 5G. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN. Further discussion on these packages can be found later in this report.
The research we conducted found a significant variation in sunset times between 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the transition for 4G may be smoother compared to previous generations, as efforts are being made to minimize support for older technologies once full coverage is achieved with the most advanced RAN technology.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunication companies are suggesting a shift in approach with the development of 6G, advocating for a more seamless and gradual transition towards newer technologies to avoid the abrupt disruptions seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to predict when older technologies will be phased out and newer ones will be introduced, a forecast chart has been created for the sunset dates spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The chart also shows the introduction of 5G starting from 2019 onwards.
This represents the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-respected analyst company with expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now also focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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