Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Network sunsetting is a major concern in the mobile industry, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G networks. The challenges of shutting down 2G networks have highlighted the need to learn from past mistakes and plan for a smooth transition when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, a few countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if there weren't many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older networks, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by discontinuing them. This also allowed them to free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and eventually 5G.
While 1G technologies were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not always determined by economic factors or average revenue per user (ARPU) in different markets.
In general, older technologies like 2G and 3G typically do not generate much revenue for operators. This leaves operators in a difficult position of deciding whether to keep these outdated technologies running at a cost or risk negative consequences by shutting them down. While operators are not always obligated to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by discontinuing them.
As a result of this factor, there has been a rise in the creation of packages that allow older G networks to coexist more economically with 4G and 5G networks. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, often utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these packages will be explored later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar pattern may occur for 4G in the 2030s. However, this transition is expected to be less significant as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services with new generations of technology.
Certain operators are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G technology, preferring a more gradual and natural process of becoming obsolete instead of the sudden disruptions seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.
Our chart predicting the sunset of older generation networks spans from 2011 to 2040 in order to account for the gradual phasing out of 4G. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment, occurring at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst firm with a 21-year history of expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded their focus to include the energy marketplace. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, is responsible for creating market forecasts and technological reports.
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