Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many still rely on 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The shutdown of 2G has caused complications, prompting a need to avoid similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue the use of 2G and 3G networks if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any push from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, telecom operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing out these networks, making more spectrum available for 4G and eventually 5G technologies.
While the first generation of mobile networks quickly became obsolete due to demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, the second generation has continued to exist in certain markets for over forty years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This longevity is due to the unique circumstances of each market, which are not always tied to economic factors or the revenue generated per user.
In general, 2G and 3G networks often do not generate high profits, leading many telecommunications companies to face a dilemma. They must decide whether to keep these outdated technologies running, despite the costs involved, or risk the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are usually not legally bound to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to coexist more economically with 4G and 5G by sharing base stations or spectrum, often utilizing Open RAN technology. Some of these solutions will be explored in more detail later in this report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older technologies once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to a 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain operators are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G technology, favoring a more gradual and natural progression that avoids the sudden disruptions seen with the phase-out of 2G networks.
In order to account for the wide range of sunset dates and the upcoming closure of 4G networks, our forecast chart extends from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services by 2011, with 4G emerging around the same period. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the red segment, with launches expected to occur at different times starting from 2019.
This represents the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become well-known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now also in the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technical reports.
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