Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for a Smooth Transition of Cellular Technology Generations

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry faces challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still depend on 3G and 2G. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have raised concerns about avoiding similar problems when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if there weren't many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by discontinuing them. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for 4G and 5G networks.

While the initial versions of 1G technology were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G technology has remained in use in certain markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is influenced by a variety of factors in different markets, which may not always be tied to economic status or revenue generated.

Typically, 2G and 3G networks do not generate high profits, leading many companies to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these older technologies running or shut them down. While operators are not always required to provide these services, they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by discontinuing them.

This reason has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generations of cellular technology to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This can be achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details about these solutions are discussed in later sections of this report.

Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G, and this trend may continue for 4G in the 2030s. However, the impact is expected to be less pronounced as efforts are made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to a new generation.

Certain operators are suggesting a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G, aiming for a more gradual and natural progression in technology without the abrupt disruptions seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.

In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G also being introduced around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart represents the rollout of 5G starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a company known for its expertise in 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They are now also focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.

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