Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Generation Sunsetting in the Mobile Industry

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. There are concerns about potential complications during the shutdown of 2G networks, leading to calls for better planning to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in the next decade.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many old applications or users still reliant on them. Without any external pressure to keep older technologies, telecom operators were able to reduce costs by discontinuing support and maintenance for these networks, and also free up valuable spectrum for the newer 4G and 5G technologies.

While the first generations of mobile technology quickly faded away with the demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique circumstances that do not always correlate with their economic status or average revenue per user.

It is true that 2G and 3G networks are usually not very profitable, leading many telecommunication companies to face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not always required to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by discontinuing them.

This element has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more efficient and cost-effective manner. This is achieved by sharing base stations or spectrum, with the assistance of Open RAN in certain situations. More details about these solutions will be provided in subsequent sections of this report.

The research we conducted found that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar pattern will occur for 4G in the 2030s. However, this transition will be less significant as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators, who are used to a 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services with new generations.

Certain operators are suggesting a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G technology, moving towards a more natural and gradual evolution that minimizes the disruptions typically seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.

In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G also beginning to emerge. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment on the chart, with launches expected to occur from 2019 onwards.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has become a leading authority in various technology sectors such as 5G, wireless communication, entertainment and streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded their focus to include the energy marketplace. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative white papers on technology.

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