Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have highlighted the need to avoid similar complications when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in about ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue their 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many older applications or users still relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older networks running, operators were able to save money by shutting them down and reallocating valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While 1G technologies were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is influenced by factors unique to each market, rather than just economic status or average revenue per user.
It is true that 2G and 3G technologies usually do not bring in much revenue, leading many operators to face a dilemma. They must decide between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential consequences of shutting them down. While operators are typically not obligated to keep these services running, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that make it possible for older generations of mobile networks to work alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This can be achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, with the assistance of Open RAN in certain instances. Additional details about these solutions will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar pattern may occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition will be less significant due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the most up-to-date RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.
Several telecommunications companies are suggesting that a shift should occur with the introduction of 6G technology, moving towards a more seamless and gradual process of technology becoming outdated. This would avoid the disruptions typically seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to account for the different dates of sunset for mobile networks and prepare for the discontinuation of 4G, our forecast chart extends over a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the introduction of 5G at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most up-to-date prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that is recognized for its expertise in 5G, wireless technology, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and energy marketplace. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology white papers.
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