Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G. There are concerns about potential complications with shutting down 2G networks, leading to calls for a more smooth transition when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older networks running, telecommunications companies were able to save money on support and maintenance by discontinuing them. This also allowed for more spectrum to be allocated for 4G and eventually 5G technologies.
While the early versions of 1G technology were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in use in certain markets for over forty years since it was first launched in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique circumstances that determine the longevity of technology, which is not always tied to economic status or revenue generated.
Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are usually linked to limited profits, causing many telecommunication companies to struggle with the dilemma of either maintaining these outdated technologies or shutting them down and facing potential consequences. While operators are not always bound by contracts to provide these services, they are hesitant to abandon a significant number of customers.
This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generations of cellular technology to coexist more efficiently with 4G and 5G, by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN. More details about these solutions will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in the sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it is expected to continue for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation is projected to be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the extended process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain operators have been suggesting a different approach for 6G in order to allow for a more seamless and gradual evolution of technology, avoiding the disruptive transition seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to account for the different sunset dates and the transition from 4G to 5G, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to emerge around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the introduction of 5G at different points starting from 2019.
This represents the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which has been updated to include:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm with expertise in 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded into the energy market. RAN Research is the team within the firm that focuses on wireless research, creating market forecasts and technology white papers.
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