Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G networks. The shutdown of 2G networks has been particularly complicated, leading to concerns about avoiding similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in about ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries acted quickly to discontinue 2G and 3G, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out these generations, allowing for more spectrum to be used for 4G and eventually 5G.

While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in certain markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the lifespan of mobile generations can vary significantly in different markets, with factors such as economic status and average revenue per user not always being the main reasons for this variation.

Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are usually linked to lower profits, causing operators to face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential consequences of shutting them down. While operators are often not obligated to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to alienate a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

This situation has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generation networks to coexist more economically with 4G and 5G by sharing base stations or spectrum, often utilizing Open RAN technology. More details about these packages will be discussed later in the report.

Our research indicates that there is a range of sunset times for 2G, 3G, and it is likely that a similar pattern will occur for 4G in the 2030s. However, this transition may not be as widespread due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.

In some markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.

There are operators who believe that with the introduction of 6G, there should be a shift towards a more natural and gradual evolution, allowing for a smoother transition and avoiding the disruptions seen with the phase-out of 2G networks.

In order to predict when older mobile networks will be phased out and newer ones will be introduced, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already implemented 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the red segment on the chart, with different operators launching it at different times starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst company with a 21-year history of expertise in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and energy markets. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.

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