Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G. There are concerns about complications that may arise during the shutdown of 2G networks, leading to calls for careful planning to avoid similar issues when the time comes to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries acted quickly to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to reduce costs by discontinuing support and maintenance for these networks, while also freeing up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and eventually 5G.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over forty years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not always determined by economic factors or average revenue per user (ARPU) in different markets.
2G and 3G networks are typically not very profitable for telecom operators, leading them to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these older technologies running or shut them down. While operators may not have contractual obligations to maintain these services, they are hesitant to abandon a large portion of their customer base.
This situation has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN. Further discussion on these packages will be provided later in the report.
The research we conducted revealed a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar trend may occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition is expected to be less extensive as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the most recent RAN technology.
In some markets, the prolonged process of discontinuing 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to feel disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services between generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are suggesting a shift in approach with the upcoming 6G technology, advocating for a more gradual and natural progression in technology obsolescence to avoid the disruptions that occurred with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to predict when older technologies will be phased out and newer ones will be introduced, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more common. The chart also shows the introduction of 5G starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless technology, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.
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