Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, especially with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The complications surrounding the shutdown of 2G networks have highlighted the need to avoid similar issues when phasing out 4G networks in the future, approximately within the next ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G services, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without external pressure to keep older technologies running, telecom operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing out these older generations, and also free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
Different versions of 1G were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, while 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G differs across markets and is not always tied to economic status or revenue generated.
It is commonly believed that 2G and 3G networks do not bring in high profits, leading many telecom operators to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down. While there may be no contractual obligation to maintain these services, operators are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This reason has caused the creation of packages that allow older generation networks to work alongside 4G and 5G more affordably by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN. Some examples of these packages will be discussed in more detail later in this report.
The research we conducted reveals a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar pattern will occur for 4G in the 2030s. However, the impact will be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the most advanced RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G technology. They are proposing a more seamless and gradual transition to newer technology, avoiding the disruptions seen with the phase-out of 2G networks.
In order to account for the wide range of sunset dates for older technology and to predict the eventual shutdown of 4G networks, the sunset forecast chart covers a span of 30 years from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services, with 4G becoming more prevalent around that time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the introduction of 5G at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has become a respected authority in the fields of 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. Recently, the firm has also started focusing on the energy market. RAN Research is the team within the firm that specializes in wireless research, providing market predictions and technology reports.
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