Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generation Sunsetting

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, especially with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. There have been complications with shutting down 2G networks, leading to concerns about avoiding similar mistakes when the time comes to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older technologies, telecom operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by discontinuing them. This also allowed for more spectrum to be allocated to newer technologies like 4G and eventually 5G.

While the first generation of mobile networks quickly became obsolete due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has continued to exist in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This demonstrates the diverse situations of different markets, which are not always influenced by economic factors or generated revenues.

Typically, 2G and 3G networks do not generate high profits, causing operators to struggle with the decision to either keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down. While operators are not required by contracts to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to function alongside 4G and 5G networks in a more cost-efficient manner. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, with the assistance of Open RAN technology in certain instances. More details about these solutions will be provided later in the report.

The research we conducted revealed a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, a trend that is expected to continue with 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation is projected to be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the most up-to-date RAN technology.

In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach to the development of 6G technology. They believe in a more seamless and gradual transition, allowing for older technology to phase out more naturally without the disruptions that occurred during the transition from 2G.

In order to account for the different dates when 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G networks will be phased out, a sunset forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the red segment on the chart, with launches expected to occur from 2019 onwards.

This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst company that has built a reputation for being a leader in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and is now focusing on the energy sector. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technical reports.

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