Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Shutdown
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. Shutdowns of 2G networks have caused complications, leading to concerns about avoiding similar issues during the eventual sunset of 4G in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, several countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G services, especially if there weren't many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations, operators were able to save costs by phasing them out, and also free up spectrum for 4G and eventually 5G.
While the first generation of mobile networks quickly became obsolete due to demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G has remained in use in certain markets for over forty years since its inception in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G networks is influenced by a variety of factors in different markets, not just economic conditions or average revenue per user.
Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, leading many telecommunications companies to struggle with the decision of whether to maintain these outdated technologies or shut them down. While operators are not usually required to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to alienate a significant portion of their customer base by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generations of mobile networks to work alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This is achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN technology. Specific examples of these solutions will be elaborated on later in the report.
The research we conducted revealed that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it is likely that a similar pattern will occur for 4G in the 2030s. However, this transition will be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In some markets, the gradual process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to feel disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunication companies are suggesting a shift in approach with the development of 6G technology, aiming for a more seamless and gradual transition to newer technologies without the disruptions seen during the phase out of 2G networks.
In order to predict the phasing out of older technologies and the introduction of newer ones, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G becoming more prevalent. The chart also shows the introduction of 5G starting from 2019 onwards.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has gained recognition for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. Recently, they have also started focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
Get the complete summary of the executive report by downloading it.
Other articles on the website include Seed4.Me, a VPN service that helps users access blocked websites and protect their data. Singtel and Hitachi Digital are working together to enhance Industrial AI solutions. NeoCortec showcased a complete sensor to cloud solution at Embedded World 2024. VIAVI has selected ETS-Lindgren to create an Anechoic Chamber at the VALOR Lab. The Indian Army is looking into next-generation wireless technologies. u-blox has released new LTE Cat 1bis cellular modules to improve global connectivity. STMicroelectronics is leading the way in microcontroller innovations and ultra-low power MCUs. They are also committed to advancing edge AI innovation and power electronics for aircraft electrification. STMicroelectronics' STM32 MCUs now support wireless connectivity. Industrial network security is important for the future. EMITE and Rohde & Schwarz are working together to support OTA measurements. congatec has introduced new SMARC modules based on NXP technology.