Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Shutdown
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, especially with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Shutdowns of 2G networks have been difficult, leading to concerns about ensuring a smoother transition when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G services, especially if they didn't have many legacy applications or users relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing out these networks. This also allowed for more spectrum to be allocated to 4G and eventually 5G services.
While the first generation of mobile technology quickly disappeared with the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has continued to exist in certain markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique circumstances that determine the longevity of older technology, which is not always based on economic conditions or generated revenues.
In reality, 2G and 3G networks are often linked with limited profits, causing operators to struggle with the decision of either maintaining these outdated technologies or shutting them down. While operators may not be legally required to provide these services anymore, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This aspect has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to function alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable manner by sharing resources like base stations or spectrum, utilizing Open RAN technology in certain situations. Further details on these solutions will be discussed later in the report.
Our research demonstrates a variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less significant for 4G due to efforts to phase out older technologies once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has led to dissatisfaction among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain telecommunications companies are suggesting that with the introduction of 6G technology, there should be a shift towards a more natural and gradual process of technological advancement. This approach would allow for older technologies to phase out more smoothly and without the disruptions typically seen during the transition from 2G networks.
In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out and to account for the beginning of the end for 4G, a forecast chart has been created that covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent around the same time. The introduction of 5G is indicated by the start of a red segment on the chart, with different operators launching it at different times starting in 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has built a strong reputation in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now, the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
Get access to the complete overview of the report by downloading the executive summary.
More articles on Seed4.Me, a VPN for accessing blocked websites and protecting data, Singtel and Hitachi Digital team up for industrial AI solutions, NeoCortec showcases sensor to cloud system at Embedded World 2024, VIAVI selects ETS-Lindgren for Anechoic Chamber at VALOR Lab, New wireless technologies for the Indian Army, u-blox launches compact LTE Cat 1bis cellular modules for global connectivity, Interview with STMicroelectronics on their microcontroller innovations and low power MCUs, STMicroelectronics shows commitment to edge AI innovation, Advances in power electronics for aircraft electrification by STMicroelectronics, STM32 MCUs from STMicroelectronics support wireless connectivity, Industrial network security for the future, EMITE and Rohde & Schwarz collaborate on OTA measurements, congatec introduces new SMARC modules based on NXP technology.