Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Shutdown
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, especially as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G. The complications of shutting down 2G have highlighted the need to avoid similar mistakes when it comes time to sunset 4G in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, some countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G services, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to save costs by phasing out these generations, allowing for more spectrum to be used for 4G and 5G networks.
While the first generation of mobile networks (1G) quickly faded away due to demand for digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation (2G) has continued to exist in certain markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This longevity is due to the diverse conditions of different markets, which are not always influenced by economic status or average revenue per user (ARPU).
In reality, 2G and 3G networks are often linked to lower profits, leading many telecommunications companies to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running at a high cost or to shut them down and potentially face backlash. While operators are not legally obligated to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant portion of their consumer or business clientele by discontinuing them.
As a result of this factor, there has been an increase in the creation of packages that allow older G networks to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This is achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details on these packages will be provided later in the report.
Our research indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to occur again with 4G in the 2030s. However, this transition is likely to be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older technologies once full coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a more gradual transition with the introduction of 6G technology, in order to allow for a more seamless and natural evolution of technology without the abrupt disruptions seen during the phase-out of 2G networks.
In order to account for the different dates when sunset dates may occur and the eventual phase-out of 4G networks, our sunset forecast chart covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G also beginning to be rolled out around that time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment on the chart, with launches expected to occur at different times starting from 2019.
This forecast is the most recent information available in the RAN Research Archive, which has been updated to include:
Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst company with a 21-year track record of expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative technology reports.
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