Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Shutdown
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Mobile networks are facing challenges with sunsetting old technologies like 3G and 2G, which are still used for legacy applications. The difficulties encountered during the shutdown of 2G networks have highlighted the importance of planning ahead to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, some countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if there weren't many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older generations running, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for 4G and eventually 5G technologies.
While the different versions of 1G were quickly replaced due to demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This illustrates the diverse situations in different markets, which are not always determined by economic status or revenue generated.
Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, and numerous service providers are facing a dilemma regarding whether to keep these outdated technologies running or shut them down due to financial and reputational concerns. Although many operators are not bound by contracts to provide these services, they are hesitant to abandon a significant portion of their consumer or corporate clientele.
As a result of this factor, there have been advancements in technology that allow older generations of cellular networks to operate alongside 4G and 5G more efficiently and affordably. This can be achieved through sharing base stations or frequency bands, sometimes utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these advancements will be discussed in later sections of this report.
Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and this trend is expected to continue for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the transition will be less pronounced as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain operators are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G, hoping for a more seamless and gradual transition to new technology to avoid the disruptions seen during the phase-out of 2G networks.
In order to predict when older technology will be phased out and newer technology will be implemented, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G becoming more prevalent around the same time. The introduction of 5G is expected to happen at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
For 21 years, Rethink Technology Research has become a respected analyst firm known for its expertise in 5G, various wireless technologies, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and recently, the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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