Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Shutdown

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Network sunsetting is a major concern in the mobile industry due to the ongoing use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications and processes. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have prompted calls to prevent similar challenges during the eventual sunset of 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if there were not many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any push from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older technology, telecom operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out these networks, freeing up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the initial iterations of 1G were quickly phased out to make way for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has continued to be used in certain markets for over 40 years since its inception in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not always tied to the economic status or average revenue per user (ARPU) of a market, but rather to a variety of factors unique to each market.

Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, and many service providers are facing a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not always legally bound to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

This trend has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generation networks to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable manner by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN technology. These solutions will be further examined later in the report.

The research we conducted indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar trend may occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition is expected to be less drastic as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technologies has caused frustration among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.

Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G, preferring a more gradual and natural evolution where outdated technology is phased out smoothly, as opposed to the sudden disruptions seen with the sunset of 2G networks.

In order to predict when older technologies like 2G and 3G will be phased out and make way for newer ones like 4G and 5G, a forecast chart covering a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040 has been created. Most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services by 2011, with 4G beginning to be rolled out around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment on the chart, with launches expected to occur at different times starting in 2019.

This is the most up-to-date prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:

Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become well-known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology papers.

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