Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Shutdowns

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry faces challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. The shutdown of 2G has caused complications, prompting industry experts to call for better planning and execution when it comes time to sunset 4G in the next decade.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries acted quickly to phase out 2G and 3G networks, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to reduce support and maintenance expenses by discontinuing them, and also free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the different iterations of 1G were quickly phased out due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in certain markets for over forty years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G in these markets is not always tied to their economic status or the average revenue per user.

Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, leading many operators to face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential consequences of shutting them down. While operators may not have a contractual obligation to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

This has caused the creation of packages that make it possible for older generations of cellular technology to work alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This can be achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN. More details about these packages will be discussed later in the report.

The research we conducted demonstrates varying sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to also occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition is projected to be less significant as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.

In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused dissatisfaction among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.

Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a shift in approach with the development of 6G technology. They believe that a more gradual and organic process of obsolescence would be preferable, avoiding the disruptions seen with the phase-out of 2G networks.

In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out and anticipate the beginning of 5G, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G becoming more prevalent around that time. The chart also shows the introduction of 5G starting from 2019.

This report is the most up-to-date prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:

Rethink Technology Research is a respected analyst firm known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded their focus to include the energy marketplace. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.

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