Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Shutdowns
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Issues arising from the shutdown of 2G networks have highlighted the importance of planning for the eventual phase out of 4G networks in the future to avoid similar complications.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, some countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks if they didn't have many legacy applications or users relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older generations, operators were able to reduce costs by discontinuing support and maintenance for these networks. This also allowed them to free up valuable spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While the first generation of mobile technology quickly faded away due to the demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, the second generation has remained in certain markets for over forty years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This longevity is a result of the diverse conditions in different markets, which do not always correlate with economic factors or average revenue per user.
Typically, 2G and 3G networks tend to generate low profits, leading many telecom operators to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these outdated technologies running or to shut them down. While there may not be any contractual obligations to maintain these services, operators are hesitant to lose a significant portion of their customer base by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation technologies to work alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way by sharing base stations or spectrum. Open RAN technology is sometimes used to facilitate this cooperation. Additional details on these solutions will be discussed later in the report.
The research we conducted demonstrates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar pattern will occur for 4G in the 2030s. However, this transition for 4G will be less significant as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the most up-to-date RAN technology.
In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the regular 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.
Certain operators are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G, where obsolescence happens more gradually and naturally, avoiding the disruptions typically seen with the phasing out of 2G technology.
In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a chart has been created that covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most mobile operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The chart also shows the introduction of 5G starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has become a respected authority in the fields of 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded their focus to include the energy market as well. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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