Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Shutdowns
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G. The complications from shutting down 2G have highlighted the importance of avoiding similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G in the future.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many older applications or users still relying on them. Without any outside pressure to keep older technologies, telecom operators were able to save money by discontinuing support and maintenance for 2G and 3G, and also make more spectrum available for newer 4G and 5G networks.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since it was first launched in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique circumstances that influence the longevity of technology, which is not always tied to economic factors or revenue generation.
In general, 2G and 3G technologies are not very profitable for operators and they face a dilemma between keeping them running at a cost or shutting them down and dealing with the consequences. Operators are often not required by contracts to keep these services running, but they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generations of mobile technology to coexist more efficiently and affordably with 4G and 5G. This is achieved by sharing base stations or spectrum, often utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these packages will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G, which is expected to also occur for 4G in the 2030s, but to a lesser degree. This is because efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become dissatisfied with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G technology, advocating for a more gradual and natural evolution that avoids the disruptive consequences of 2G network shutdowns.
In order to predict when older technologies will be phased out and new ones introduced, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The introduction of 5G is expected to begin at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become a prominent figure in the technology industry for the past 21 years. They focus on areas such as 5G and various wireless technologies, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and are now expanding into the energy sector. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative white papers on technology.
Access the complete overview of findings for download.
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