Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G. The complications of shutting down 2G have prompted calls to avoid similar mistakes when it comes time to phase out 4G in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries acted quickly to discontinue 2G and 3G services, especially if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older technologies running, telecom operators were able to reduce costs related to support and maintenance by phasing out 2G and 3G. This also allowed them to free up valuable spectrum for the newer 4G and 5G networks.
While the different iterations of 1G were quickly replaced due to demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in some markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique circumstances that can prolong the lifespan of certain technologies, which is not always tied to economic factors or revenue generation.
In reality, 2G and 3G networks are usually not very profitable, and many telecommunications companies face a dilemma between keeping these outdated technologies running and the potential consequences of shutting them down. While operators may not have a contractual obligation to maintain these services, they are hesitant to abandon a significant number of customers or business clients.
This has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generation networks to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This is achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, often with the assistance of Open RAN technology. Further details on these packages will be discussed later in the report.
The research we conducted indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it appears that a similar pattern may occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this transition is expected to be less significant as steps are being taken to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the most advanced RAN technology.
In certain markets, the long process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G technology, advocating for a more gradual and natural transition that avoids the disruptive effects seen with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to account for the wide range of sunset dates and the early closures of 4G networks, our sunset forecast chart covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G beginning to emerge around the same time. The introduction of 5G is shown by the start of the red segment, with different operators launching it at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now energy market. Their team, RAN Research, focuses on conducting research on wireless technology and creating market forecasts and white papers.
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