Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting due to the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have highlighted the need to plan for the sunsetting of 4G networks in the future to avoid similar complications.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly phased out 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, telecom operators were able to save on support and maintenance expenses by discontinuing these networks. This also allowed for more spectrum to be allocated to 4G and eventually 5G technologies.
While 1G technologies were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has continued to be used in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G in certain markets is not always determined by economic factors or average revenue per user.
In reality, 2G and 3G networks tend to bring in less money for operators, leading them to face a difficult decision between keeping these older technologies running at a cost or shutting them down and potentially facing backlash. While operators may not be legally required to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers or business clients by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generations of cellular technology to coexist more affordably with 4G and 5G. This is achieved by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. These solutions will be discussed in more detail later in the report.
The research we conducted indicates that there is a large variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G, and it appears that this pattern will also be seen in 4G during the 2030s. However, the extent of this variation may be lessened due to efforts being made to phase out older generations once complete coverage has been achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the regular 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain operators are advocating for a shift in approach with the upcoming 6G technology, aiming for a more seamless and gradual progression in terms of obsolescence, as opposed to the abrupt changes seen with the phase-out of 2G networks.
In order to predict when older mobile network technologies will be phased out and newer ones introduced, a forecast chart has been created spanning 30 years from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most mobile operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more common. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the red segment on the chart, with different operators launching it at different times starting from 2019.
This prediction is the most recent one found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently consists of:
Rethink Technology Research is a company known for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, IoT, and now energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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