Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry faces challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the reliance on 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The complications surrounding 2G shutdowns have prompted calls to avoid similar issues when 4G sunsets in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue their 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older technologies, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be freed up for the newer 4G and 5G networks.
While earlier versions of 1G were quickly replaced due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has continued to be used in some markets for over forty years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the adoption and phasing out of technology can vary greatly between different markets, and is not always dependent on economic factors or revenue generated.
It is true that 2G and 3G networks tend to generate less revenue for operators. Many operators face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not usually obligated to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of consumers or business clients.
This reason has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to continue operating alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This can be achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the support of Open RAN technology. More details about these solutions will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a wide range of sunset times for older generations of mobile technology like 2G and 3G. This trend is expected to continue with the rollout of 4G in the 2030s, but to a lesser degree. This is because steps are being taken to phase out support for older generations once the latest RAN technology has been fully implemented and coverage has been established.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to a new generation.
Certain operators are suggesting a shift with the introduction of 6G to allow for a more natural and gradual evolution, avoiding the sudden disruptions seen with the transition from 2G.
In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created covering a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become popular. The chart also shows the introduction of 5G at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has gained recognition in the past 21 years for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently started focusing on the energy industry as well. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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