Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many still rely on 3G and 2G for legacy applications and processes. The shutdown of 2G networks has shown complications, prompting calls to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G technology in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue the use of 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users relying on them. Without any external pressure to keep the older networks operational, telecom operators were able to reduce costs by phasing them out, allowing them to focus on supporting and improving newer technologies like 4G and 5G. This also freed up valuable spectrum for the newer generations of networks.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly phased out due to demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in certain markets for over forty years since its inception in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is influenced by a variety of factors in different markets, which are not always tied to economic conditions or revenue generated per user.
Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, and numerous telecommunications companies have faced challenges in deciding whether to keep these outdated technologies or shut them down. While operators may not be legally bound to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant portion of their customer base by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to coexist more economically with 4G and 5G by sharing base stations or spectrum, with the assistance of Open RAN in certain situations. More details about these packages will be discussed later in this report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times between 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to continue with the introduction of 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation is likely to be less pronounced due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has led operators to feel disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services between generations.
Certain operators are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G, preferring a more gradual and natural transition to newer technology instead of abrupt changes like those seen with the sunset of 2G.
In order to account for the wide range of sunset dates for different technologies, our forecast chart extends from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with the introduction of 4G also beginning around that time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the rollout of 5G starting from different times in 2019 and beyond.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has built a reputation for expertise in 5G technology, various wireless technologies, the entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently expanded their focus to include the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology reports.
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