Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, particularly with the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. There have been complications with shutting down 2G networks, leading to concerns about avoiding similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly made the decision to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications and users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations running, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for 4G and eventually 5G technologies.
While the early versions of 1G technology were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G technology has continued to be used in some markets for over 40 years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G technology in certain markets is not always determined by economic factors or the revenue generated.
Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are typically linked to lower profits, leading many telecom companies to face the dilemma of either maintaining these outdated technologies at a cost or facing potential backlash from customers if they shut them down. While operators may not be legally required to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This is achieved through sharing base stations or frequency bands, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN. Further details on these solutions are provided later in the report.
The research we conducted reveals a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to also occur for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation will be less pronounced because actions are being taken to phase out older generations once the latest RAN technology has been fully implemented for complete coverage.
In some markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become disillusioned with the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunications providers are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G, which would involve a more gradual and natural process of becoming obsolete. This would aim to avoid the disruptions and challenges that have been associated with the phase out of 2G networks.
In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out and anticipate the first closures of 4G, a sunset forecast chart has been created covering a span of 30 years from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around that time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the introduction of 5G at different times starting from 2019.
This forecast is the most recent addition to the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-respected analyst firm with a 21-year track record of expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market forecasts and technology white papers.
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