Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap from 2024 to 2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many still rely on 3G and 2G for older applications and processes. The difficulties with shutting down 2G have highlighted the need to avoid similar issues when it comes time to phase out 4G in about ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries promptly discontinued the use of 2G and 3G networks, especially if there were not many outdated applications or users still reliant on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, telecom operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out these networks, freeing up valuable spectrum for 4G and eventually 5G services.
While early generations of mobile networks quickly became obsolete due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in use in certain markets for over forty years since its inception in Finland in 1991. This prolonged existence of 2G is a result of the unique conditions present in different markets, which are not always influenced by economic factors or average revenue per user.
Certainly, 2G and 3G networks are often linked to low profits, leading many service providers to face a dilemma. They must decide between the expenses of maintaining these older technologies and the potential backlash of shutting them down. While operators are not always obligated by contracts to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of consumers or business clients.
This factor has resulted in the creation of packages that make it more economical for older G networks to exist alongside 4G and 5G. This can be achieved by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details on some of these packages will be discussed later in the report.
The research we conducted found a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the sunset for 4G is expected to be less widespread compared to previous generations, as efforts are being made to transition away from older technologies once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain telecommunications companies are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G technology, advocating for a more seamless and gradual transition to newer technology without the abrupt changes that happened with the phasing out of 2G networks.
In order to predict when 4G networks will begin to shut down, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most mobile operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G being introduced around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the launch of 5G networks at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a reputable analyst firm known for its expertise in various technologies such as 5G, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. Recently, they have also started focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative technology documents.
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