Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Network sunsetting is a growing concern in the mobile industry as many still rely on 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The challenges of shutting down 2G networks have prompted calls for better planning and execution when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in the next decade.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations of networks, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for 4G and eventually 5G technologies.

While the early versions of 1G quickly disappeared due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in certain markets for over forty years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is influenced by factors unique to each market, rather than just economic factors or revenue generated.

Certainly, operators often struggle with low profits from 2G and 3G services, and face a dilemma between the expense of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While they are not always obligated to keep providing these services, operators are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.

This has caused the creation of solutions that allow older generations of mobile technology to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This can be achieved by sharing base stations or spectrum, with the assistance of Open RAN in certain situations. Additional details about these solutions will be provided in the later sections of this report.

The research we conducted found that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it is expected to be similar for 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation is likely to be less pronounced because steps are being taken to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.

In some markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.

Certain operators are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G, hoping for a more organic progression where technology becomes obsolete in a more gradual and seamless manner, avoiding the disruptions seen with the transition from 2G.

In order to predict when 2G, 3G, and 4G networks will be phased out and replaced by 5G, a forecast chart has been created covering the years 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The introduction of 5G is expected to occur at different times starting from 2019.

This is the most recent prediction found in the RAN Research Archive, which currently has:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm with a 21-year history of expertise in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment, streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now, the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.

Access the complete overview of the report by downloading the full executive summary.

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