Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications and processes still rely on 3G and 2G technology. Issues with shutting down 2G networks have prompted concerns about avoiding similar complications when it comes time to phase out 4G technology in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G services, especially if they didn't have many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing out these older generations. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for 4G and eventually 5G networks.
While the first generation of mobile networks quickly became obsolete due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has remained in some markets for over 40 years since it was initially launched in Finland in 1991. This longevity is due to the diverse conditions of different markets, which are not always tied to their economic status or the revenue generated per user.
In reality, 2G and 3G networks are often linked to lower profits, leading operators to face a dilemma between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators may not be legally required to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This reason has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable manner by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN technology. More details about these solutions will be discussed later in this report.
Our research indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to continue with 4G in the 2030s. However, this variation will be less pronounced as efforts are made to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In some markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become disenchanted with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services.
Certain telecommunication companies are advocating for a different approach to the introduction of 6G technology, one that allows for a more seamless and gradual transition without the abrupt discontinuation of older technologies like what happened with 2G.
In order to predict the timeline for when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The introduction of 5G began at different times starting from 2019, as indicated by the start of the red segment on the chart.
This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has become a respected authority in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and is now focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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