Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Network sunsetting is a pressing concern in the mobile industry due to the ongoing use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. There have been challenges with shutting down 2G networks, prompting calls for better planning to avoid similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G networks in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue the use of 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many older applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older technologies, telecommunication companies were able to reduce costs by phasing out support and maintenance for 2G and 3G networks. This also allowed them to free up valuable spectrum for the newer 4G and 5G technologies.
While 1G quickly disappeared due to demand for digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has continued to exist in certain markets for over 40 years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows how different markets have unique circumstances that influence the longevity of technology, which is not always tied to economic status or revenue generated.
Certainly, older generations of mobile networks like 2G and 3G are often linked with lower profits, causing operators to face a dilemma. They must decide between the expenses of maintaining these outdated technologies and the potential consequences of shutting them down, such as damage to their reputation. While operators may not have a contractual obligation to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to abandon a significant portion of their consumer or business clientele.
This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation networks to operate more efficiently alongside 4G and 5G networks, through the sharing of infrastructure or frequency bands, sometimes utilizing Open RAN technology. Specific examples of these solutions are explored later in the report.
The research we conducted indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G in the 2030s. However, this spread is expected to be less pronounced for 4G compared to previous generations, as efforts are being made to phase out older technologies once full coverage is achieved with the most up-to-date RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunication companies are advocating for a different approach with the introduction of 6G technology. They suggest a more natural and gradual process of technological advancement, avoiding the sudden disruptions typically seen with the phasing out of older technologies like 2G.
In order to predict the sunset dates for older technologies like 2G, 3G, and eventually 4G, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services by 2011, with 4G starting to emerge around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the beginning of the red segment on the chart, with different operators launching it at different times starting from 2019.
This forecast is the most recent update in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become well-known in the past 21 years for its expertise in 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now, the energy sector. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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