Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset

The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for the years 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on outdated 3G and 2G networks. The shutdown of 2G networks has been particularly problematic, leading to concerns about avoiding similar issues when the time comes to phase out 4G networks in approximately ten years.

Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, particularly if they didn't have many outdated applications or users relying on them. Without any external pressure to keep older technologies running, telecom operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing out these networks and reallocating spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.

While the first generation of cellular networks quickly transitioned to digital voice and SMS texting due to demand, the second generation has remained in certain markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G networks in different markets is not always tied to economic factors or average revenue per user.

In reality, 2G and 3G networks are usually linked to lower profits, leading many companies to face a dilemma between keeping these outdated technologies running at a cost or risking negative consequences by shutting them down. While operators may not have a contractual obligation to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant portion of their customers by discontinuing them.

This factor has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older G technologies to coexist more efficiently with 4G and 5G by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN. More details about these packages will be discussed later in this report.

The research we conducted indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to also occur for 4G networks in the 2030s, but to a lesser degree. This is because steps are being taken to minimize support for older generations once complete coverage has been achieved with the most up-to-date RAN technology.

In certain markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to a 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services with each new generation.

Certain operators are suggesting a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G, advocating for a more natural and gradual progression to avoid the disruptions typically seen with the phasing out of 2G technology.

In order to predict the end dates for different generations of mobile networks and predict when 4G will start shutting down, our forecast chart looks ahead 30 years from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The beginning of the red section on the chart represents the launch of 5G at different times starting from 2019.

This forecast is the most recent addition to the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:

Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has become a respected authority in the areas of 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and is now expanding into the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.

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