Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040 addresses the strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting due to the ongoing use of 3G and 2G for older applications. The shutdown of 2G networks has caused complications, prompting the industry to prepare for the eventual phase-out of 4G networks in approximately ten years to avoid similar issues.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G services, especially if there were not many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep older technologies, operators were able to save on support and maintenance expenses by phasing out these networks. This also allowed for the allocation of valuable spectrum for the development of 4G and eventually 5G technologies.
While early generations of mobile technology quickly became obsolete due to demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G has managed to remain in certain markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is not solely determined by economic factors or average revenue per user (ARPU), but rather by unique circumstances in different markets.
In general, 2G and 3G technologies are not very profitable and many telecommunication companies find themselves in a difficult position. They must decide whether to keep these older technologies running, which can be costly, or to shut them down and risk negative consequences. While operators are not always required by contract to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers.
This situation has resulted in the creation of solutions that allow older generation technologies to work alongside 4G and 5G in a more cost-efficient manner. This can be achieved through the sharing of base stations or spectrum, utilizing Open RAN technology in certain situations. More details on these solutions will be provided later in the report.
The research we conducted indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times between 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older generations once full coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused dissatisfaction among operators who are used to the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G technology. They believe in allowing for a more gradual and natural evolution of technology, where outdated systems are phased out without the sudden disruptions seen during the transition from 2G to newer technologies.
In order to account for the wide range of sunset dates and the upcoming closures of 4G networks, our sunset forecast chart extends over a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced their 2G and 3G services, with 4G also beginning to emerge around that time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the bright red segment, occurring at different times from 2019 onwards.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company specializing in analyzing and providing insights on various technologies such as 5G, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and energy market. Their research team, RAN Research, focuses on wireless technology and creates market forecasts and technical reports.
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