Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older generations of cellular technology. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting due to the continued use of 3G and 2G for legacy applications. Shutdowns of 2G networks have been problematic, prompting concerns about avoiding similar issues when phasing out 4G in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations of networks, operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out. This also allowed for more spectrum to be available for the more advanced 4G and 5G technologies.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has remained in certain markets for over forty years since its initial launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G is influenced by different market conditions, which are not necessarily tied to economic factors or revenue generated.
In general, 2G and 3G technologies are not very profitable for operators, and many face a dilemma between the costs of keeping these older technologies running and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not legally bound to keep offering these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
This situation has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generations of cellular technology to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable way. This is achieved through sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN. More details on these packages will be discussed later in the report.
The research we conducted indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, and it is likely that this trend will also be seen with 4G networks in the 2030s. However, this variation in sunset times is expected to be less pronounced for 4G due to efforts to phase out older generations once complete coverage is achieved with the latest RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused operators to become dissatisfied with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach to the evolution of technology with the next generation, 6G. They argue for a smoother and more gradual process of becoming outdated, as opposed to the abrupt disruptions that come with the end of 2G networks.
In order to predict the sunset dates for older generations of mobile networks and anticipate the shutdown of 4G, our forecast chart looks ahead 30 years from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G emerging around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart signifies the introduction of 5G at different points starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research database, which has been updated to include:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become a respected authority in various technology sectors over the course of 21 years. They specialize in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and are now expanding into the energy industry. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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