Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Network sunsetting is a major concern in the mobile industry as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G networks. The challenges faced during the shutdown of 2G networks have highlighted the importance of avoiding similar mistakes when transitioning to sunset 4G networks in the next decade.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, some countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older technologies, telecom operators were able to save money on support and maintenance by phasing them out, and also make more efficient use of spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While the early versions of 1G were quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, 2G has continued to be used in certain markets for over forty years since its launch in Finland in 1991. This shows that the adoption and phasing out of technology can differ greatly across markets, and is not always dependent on economic factors or average revenue per user.
In general, 2G and 3G networks are not profitable for operators and they face a dilemma between the costs of maintaining these outdated technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not always required to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a large portion of their customer base by discontinuing them.
As a result of this factor, there have been advancements in packages that allow older generation networks to operate alongside 4G and 5G in a more affordable manner. This is achieved by sharing base stations or spectrum, often utilizing Open RAN technology. More details on these advancements will be discussed later in the report.
Our research indicates that there is a significant variation in sunset times for 2G and 3G networks, which is expected to continue with 4G in the 2030s. However, the extent of this variation is likely to be less as efforts are being made to phase out older generations once full coverage has been achieved with the newest RAN technology.
In some markets, the long process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused dissatisfaction among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to newer generations.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a different approach with the development of 6G technology. They are proposing a more gradual and organic transition to newer technology, to avoid the disruptive changes that occurred with the transition from 2G to newer generations.
In order to predict the transition of different generations of mobile networks and account for the early shutdown of 4G, our forecast chart covers a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G beginning to emerge. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the red segment on the chart, occurring at different times from 2019 onwards.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a company that has become a respected authority in the fields of 5G technology, wireless communication, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and energy market in its 21-year existence. The RAN Research team focuses on wireless research, creating predictions for the market and informative technology documents.
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