Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. The mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. The complications of shutting down 2G have raised concerns about avoiding similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G in about ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, some countries quickly decided to discontinue 2G and 3G networks, especially if they didn't have many outdated applications or users relying on them. Without any pressure from stakeholders or regulators to keep old technologies, operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out older networks and reallocating spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While the first generation of mobile networks was quickly replaced by digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has remained in some markets for over forty years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G networks is not always dependent on the economic status or the average revenue per user in a particular market.
In general, 2G and 3G networks are not very profitable for operators, and many are facing a dilemma between the costs of maintaining these older technologies and the consequences of shutting them down. While operators are not always obligated to keep providing these services, they are hesitant to lose a large number of customers by doing so.
This has resulted in the creation of packages that make it more affordable for older generation networks to coexist alongside 4G and 5G networks by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes with the assistance of Open RAN. These packages will be discussed in more detail later in the report.
Our research indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks in the 2030s. However, the sunset for 4G is expected to be less pronounced compared to older generations, as efforts are being made to transition fully to the latest RAN technology once complete coverage is achieved.
In certain markets, the prolonged process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused operators to become disillusioned with the usual 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services with each new generation.
Certain telecommunications companies are suggesting a different approach for the development of 6G technology. They believe that a more gradual and natural progression, without sudden obsolescence like what happened with 2G, would be more beneficial.
In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G starting to become more prevalent. The introduction of 5G is shown by the beginning of the red segment on the chart, with different operators launching it at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm with 21 years of experience in being a leading expert in 5G technology, wireless technology, entertainment industry, streaming media, and the Internet of Things. They have recently started focusing on the energy market as well. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and technology reports.
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