Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations from 2024 to 2040. Network sunsetting is a pressing issue in the mobile industry, as many still rely on 3G and 2G for legacy applications. The challenges of shutting down 2G have highlighted the importance of avoiding similar mistakes when it comes time to phase out 4G in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, certain countries quickly decided to discontinue the use of 2G and 3G networks, especially if there were not many legacy applications or users still relying on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older generations running, telecommunication operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out these networks, freeing up valuable spectrum for the advancement of 4G and eventually 5G technology.
While earlier generations of mobile technology quickly disappeared with the demand for digital voice and SMS messaging, 2G has continued to be used in certain markets for over 40 years since its debut in Finland in 1991. This prolonged use of 2G is due to the unique circumstances of each market, which are not always tied to economic factors or revenue generated.
Typically, 2G and 3G networks are not very profitable for operators, leading them to struggle with the decision of whether to keep these older technologies running or shut them down. While operators may not have a contractual obligation to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers by discontinuing them.
As a result of this factor, there have been advancements in packages that allow older G technologies to coexist more affordably with 4G and 5G by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN. Further details on these advancements will be discussed later in this report.
The research we conducted indicates a significant variation in sunset times between 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G networks by the 2030s. However, the transition to 4G is expected to have less impact due to efforts to minimize support for older generations once the latest RAN technology is fully implemented.
In certain markets, the gradual process of phasing out 2G and 3G networks has caused frustration among operators who are used to the typical 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to a new generation.
Certain telecommunications companies are advocating for a more gradual transition to new technology with the upcoming 6G network. They believe that this approach will allow for a more natural progression of technology, reducing the disruptive impact seen during the transition from 2G to newer networks.
In order to predict when different generations of mobile networks will be phased out, a forecast chart has been created spanning from 2011 to 2040. By 2011, most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services, with 4G beginning to roll out around the same time. The beginning of the red segment on the chart represents the introduction of 5G starting from 2019.
This forecast is the most up-to-date information available in the RAN Research Archive, which currently contains:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst firm that has made a name for itself in the past 21 years as an expert in 5G technology, various wireless technologies, entertainment industry, streaming media, Internet of Things, and now also focusing on the energy market. Their wireless research team, RAN Research, creates market predictions and informative white papers on technology.
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