Navigating the Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap 2024-2040: Strategies for Cellular Technology Generations Sunset
The Spectrum Sunsetting Roadmap for 2024-2040 outlines strategies for phasing out older cellular technology generations. Mobile industry is facing challenges with network sunsetting, as many legacy applications still rely on 3G and 2G. The complications experienced during 2G shutdowns have highlighted the importance of avoiding similar issues when it comes time to sunset 4G in approximately ten years.
Following the introduction of 4G in 2009, several countries quickly discontinued their 2G and 3G networks, especially if they did not have many users or applications still reliant on them. Without any pushback from stakeholders or regulators to keep the older technologies, telecom operators were able to reduce costs by phasing out support and maintenance for 2G and 3G, and reallocating spectrum for newer technologies like 4G and 5G.
While the first generation of mobile networks quickly became outdated due to the demand for digital voice and SMS texting, the second generation has continued to be used in some markets for over forty years since its introduction in Finland in 1991. This shows that the longevity of 2G networks is not solely determined by economic factors or average revenue per user in different markets.
2G and 3G networks are typically not very profitable for telecommunications companies, leading to a dilemma for operators. They must decide between the costs of keeping these outdated technologies running and the potential backlash from shutting them down. While operators are not usually obligated to maintain these services, they are hesitant to lose a significant number of customers if they do decide to discontinue them.
This reason has resulted in the creation of packages that allow older generations of cellular technology to exist alongside 4G and 5G in a more budget-friendly manner by sharing base stations or spectrum, sometimes utilizing Open RAN. More information on some of these packages will be provided later in this report.
The research we conducted indicates a significant variation in sunset times for 2G, 3G, and potentially 4G in the 2030s. However, the transition for 4G may not be as drastic as previous generations, as efforts are being made to phase out older technologies once complete coverage is achieved with the most current RAN technology.
In some markets, the slow process of phasing out 2G and 3G technology has caused frustration among operators who are used to the regular 10-year cycle of upgrading cellular services to new generations.
Certain operators are suggesting a shift in approach with the introduction of 6G, advocating for a more natural and gradual progression in technology to avoid the disruptions that come with the end of 2G networks.
In order to predict when 4G networks will start shutting down and to account for the wide range of sunset dates, a forecast chart has been created covering a 30-year period from 2011 to 2040. Most operators had already introduced 2G and 3G services by 2011, with 4G beginning to emerge around the same time. The introduction of 5G is represented by the start of the bright red segment on the chart, with different operators launching it at different times starting from 2019.
This is the most recent prediction available in the RAN Research Archive, which has been updated to include:
Rethink Technology Research is a well-known analyst company that has become a respected authority in areas such as 5G, wireless technology, entertainment and streaming media, the Internet of Things, and now energy markets over the course of its 21-year existence. Within the company, RAN Research focuses on wireless research, creating market predictions and informative technology reports.
Access the complete overview of the report by downloading the executive summary in its entirety.
Other articles on Seed4.Me, Singtel and Hitachi Digital's partnership, NeoCortec's sensor to cloud solution demo, VIAVI's choice of ETS-Lindgren for anechoic chamber, upcoming wireless technologies for the Indian Army, u-blox's new LTE Cat 1bis cellular modules, and an interview on STMicroelectronics' microcontroller innovations and low power MCUs. STMicroelectronics continues to show innovation and commitment to edge AI, power electronics for aircraft electrification, and STM32 MCUs supporting wireless connectivity. Industrial network security is crucial for the future, and EMITE and Rohde & Schwarz are teaming up for OTA measurements. congatec introduces new SMARC modules based on NXP.